My Research

Since the financial crisis, the effectiveness of monetary policy for inflation targeting has been increasingly questioned. Policymakers and academics now recognise that many sources of inflation lie outside the central bank’s influence, prompting calls for a more prominent role for fiscal policy in maintaining price stability, in particular, for the strategic use of public spending to expand productive capacity in parts of the economy that are sensitive to inflation.

My doctoral research develops an analytical framework to put this into practice. Building on statistical approaches that identify inflation-sensitive industries, I propose an inflation risk metric to assess fiscal policy proposals before they are implemented. I test the framework on real economies, including the UK and Peru, to understand how prices respond to government spending across different economic contexts. The aim is a more effective approach to inflation management: one that adds a supply-side dimension to the current, largely demand-focused, monetary policy framework, and that gives policymakers greater confidence to act on challenges from climate change to economic inequality.

More broadly, my work addresses the economics of public provisioning: how governments can use fiscal policy to deliver on priorities, from energy security to employment, without triggering inflation. This is the thread connecting my research to my wider policy work.

Publications & Policy

Working Papers

  • Pino, P. (2026). Understanding the Inflation Risks of Public Capital Investment: An Input–Output Modelling Approach. IIPP Working Paper Series, WP 2026-05. UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose.
  • Book Chapters
  • Pino, P. (forthcoming). “Provisioning Sustainably: The Case for a Job Guarantee” (Chapter 22). Routledge.
  • Policy Reports
  • Pino, P. (2026). From Price Taker to Price Shaper: A Time-Critical Plan for UK Energy Prices and Security. MMTUK Policy Research Group.
  • → https://mmtuk.org/research/energy-price-policy/
  • Pino, P. (2026). From Price Taker to Price Setter: A Time-Critical Plan for UK Energy Prices and Security (briefing). Common Wealth.
  • → https://www.common-wealth.org/publications/from-price-taker-to-price-setter-a-time-critical-plan-for-uk-energy-prices-and-security
  • Pino, P. (2026). A Counter-Inflationary Job Guarantee for the United Kingdom. MMTUK Policy Research Group.
  • → https://mmtuk.org/job-guarantee
  • Pino, P. (2020). “Who Should Pay for the COVID-19 Crisis? The Government.” The Full Brexit.

Talks & Media